The following is an excerpt from our April issue:

By Jonathan Lindberg

Last month, Commercial Appeal reporter Michael Erskine wrote to inform us all that Shelby County Mayor A.C. Wharton would not be running for Memphis City Mayor, as long as Willie Herenton was on the ballot. And though the article was well-written, one has to wonder if such obvious news even deserves a headline.

Wharton is not even a full year into a four-year term, in a job he truly likes.

In fact throughout last year, Wharton was never even viewed as a replacement for Herenton, should Herenton have been unable or unwilling to run. Attorney Robert Spence was rumored to be the designee from the Herenton camp, should the opportunity have arisen. Of course, any hope of that happening was dashed in January when Spence was soundly defeated by Beverly Marrero in the primary race for State Senate District 30. Spence, for now, appears to be politically dead-in-the-water.

What makes the Wharton buzz interesting is not the headlines he is making now, but rather the subtext behind the headlines. Erskine writes, “The popular Wharton has been mentioned in political circles as someone who could actually defeat the four-year incumbent (Herenton).”

We will never know.

The truth is, Mike Tyson is more likely to step into the ring with Evander “Evan” Holyfield than Wharton is to match himself against Herenton. Still, the talk among those inky aforementioned “political circles” is that Wharton is an almost-lock to win Memphis Mayor, should he decide to run in four years from now.

The intent seems to be there and the wheels are already in motion.

So what does all this mean in this race for this year? Wharton was really the only potential candidate left in Shelby County that could have entered this race and immediately pulled substantial votes from every major candidate, to the point that he could have toppled Herenton even in a five-person-race.

However, that is not going to happen.

That being said, no one remaining could enter this race at this point and hurt all four declared candidates. There is no one left with that kind of punch. Anyone entering this race from this point on would be guaranteed two things. One, a small base of voters pulled from maybe one or two of the declared candidates. Two, a second place finish at best, but more likely fourth or fifth, depending on background and experience.

In other words, is there really any point for anyone else to get in this race?

Four candidates is a crowded field to be sure. This is what we have. However, five candidates – forget about it – that is a recipe for a landslide.