The following article is taken from the August 2009 issue of the Main Street Journal. Click “Subscribe Online” above to start your subscription.

On the River: Gibbons for Governor?
By: Jonathan Lindberg

It goes without saying; whoever becomes the next governor of Tennessee must have a strong and consistent message on the economy and their ability to bring jobs into Tennessee. This in the face of ten percent unemployment in Shelby County and throughout the state.

One has to wonder then why Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons, who is running for governor, is spending so much of his stump speech talking about crime and education. Important issues to be sure. Issues that have won and lost elections in the past. However, clearly, this race for governor will be decided based on jobs and the economy.

The simple answer is that Gibbons is most comfortable when talking about crime. He has a strong record of fighting crime and knows his facts. However, the truth is, of the four major candidates running for the Republican nomination, Gibbons has the most to prove when it comes to dealing with the economy and creating jobs.

On the stump, every other word that comes out of the mouth of Gibbons ought to be on the economy – jobs, jobs and more jobs.

The strategy of the Gibbons team seems simple enough. Gibbons knows he must carry Shelby County and West Tennessee by large margins. Gibbons must do well in Middle Tennessee, but not necessarily overwhelm. And he should get at least a handful of votes in East Tennessee, the grand division where all three of his main opponents reside.

Of course this is all on paper. What is needed is a perfect storm scenario to make this all play out.

While speaking to a group of Shelby County Republicans, when Gibbons finally did bring up the economy, he assured the group of his desire to bring more funding and more jobs to Shelby County. Of course this plays well to West Tennessee crowds, who often feel ignored, however one has to wonder how the rest of the state will react to such promises when bloggers and media pick up on this message.

The reason for such rhetoric is clear – Gibbons hardly has West Tennessee secured. The Gibbons team points to a poll showing him sixty points ahead of all three competitors. However, State Senator Ron Ramsey is making serious headway toward becoming the conservative choice among the candidates, which will eventually cut into Gibbons, who is seen by many as a moderate.

Gibbons no doubt remains popular in Shelby County, drawing large vote totals in his last two elections. In the race for Governor, Memphis and Shelby County matter. However, part of the Gibbons impact has been his ability to draw in a substantial number of Democratic voters. On a ballot that will feature Cohen vs. Herenton for Congress, don’t count on many Democrats or Independents pulling Republican ballots. Will this affect Gibbons?

The elephant in the room is the unlimited funding behind Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam. Once Haslam begins running his thirty and sixty second television spots non-stop, expect his name recognition to go through the roof and his numbers across the state to spike. It is the exact same approach Bob Corker took in 2006, and it worked.

For now, the West-Tennessee-or-bust strategy seems to make the most sense. The risk Gibbons takes is if West Tennessee unravels before he is able to sharpen his message and gain his footing on the economy.

If that happens, push cards become door mats.

The election is over a year away, however for Gibbons, the clock is already ticking.