2009 April 06

Main Street Journal: Opinion Editorial: Déjà Vu: What the Governor’s race of 2010 and the Senate race of 2006 have in common

The following article is taken from the April 2009 issue of the Main Street Journal. Click “Subscribe Online” above to start your subscription.

Déjà Vu: What the Governor’s race of 2010 and the Senate race of 2006 have in common
By: Jonathan Lindberg

Four years have passed since we have had any kind of real statewide election. In 2006, the U.S. Senate race provided plenty of strategy, theatrics and buzz, culminating in a parking lot confrontation between Bob Corker by Harold Ford Jr. that somehow backfired (which still surprises this writer).

Not much has happened since that moment. Sure, we had another Senate race last year, but who among us remembers the name of the man who challenged Lamar Alexander and lost by five touchdowns? (Answer: Bob Tuke)

Four years is a long time to wait but we finally have another race on our hands.

In 2010, four strong Republicans and at least four strong Democrats will contend for the most powerful position in the state. And much like 2006, the politics of locality and the politics of finance should drive this race.

In 2006, three strong candidates from the three Grand Divisions within Tennessee battled for the Republican nomination. Ed Bryant, principled and conservative, held West Tennessee. Van Hilleary, seasoned and well known, came from Middle Tennessee. And Bob Corker, wealthy but unknown came from Chattanooga.

At sixteen months out, which is how long we have till the first vote for Governor, Bryant and Hilleary held double digit leads over Corker, due mostly to name recognition. However, in the months leading up to the election, Corker was able to outspend his opponents 3-1 and secure 48% of the primary vote.

In 2006, the finance chair for the Corker campaign was Jimmy Haslam, founder of Pilot gas stations. His son, Bill Haslam, Mayor of Knoxville, is running for Governor in 2010. Of all the candidates in this race, Haslam has the most in common with Corker, both unknown statewide but both well funded. Both were Mayors of large East Tennessee cities and both have many of the big financial donors wrapped up.

Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself.

In 2010, three of the main Republican candidates hail from East Tennessee: Haslam, Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey and U.S. Congressman Zach Wamp. For a state that is much longer than it is wide, that makes for a crowded field. Rumors are already swirling that one of the three will exit-stage-right well before the primary votes are cast.

Ramsey and Wamp seem to be fighting for the part of Van Hilleary this year. Both are well-known around the state (Ramsey seems to have the most solid footing in Middle Tennessee being Lieutenant Governor). Both have made strong political gains in recent years. However, both face major financial deficits when faced with Haslam.

Haslam enjoys an advantage that only an unknown candidate with money has, he will be able to define himself. The question in 2006 is the same then in 2010 – will anyone remember the other candidates when the full force of the Haslam ad machine begins?

When it comes to Republican politics, West Tennessee if often forgotten. The major advantage that Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons has though is the same advantage that Ed Bryant had in 2006 – both had West Tennessee all to themselves. Unfortunately, Gibbons does not have the conservative credentials of an Ed Bryant (at this point, the conservative mantel seems to rest on the shoulders of Ramsey). Gibbons though would do well to learn from Bryant, who spent too much of his campaign trying to distance himself from Hilleary, that he forgot at times that his main competitor was Corker.

Make no mistake, Haslam is the competition and Middle Tennessee is the battleground. At this point, Ramsey seems to have the name recognition in Middle Tennessee. However, all four candidates have their sights set on those twenty-or-so counties. It was no coincidence that Gibbons announced his intention to run for Governor not in a newspaper in West Tennessee, but Middle Tennessee.

That is the politics of locality. And so the race begins.

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